Attorney General Holder has announced that he intends to bring the 9/11 mastermind Khalid Sheikh Mohammed to trial in Federal Court in New York City. AG Holder made this decision in part becasue he believes the 9/11 attacks were primarily against citizens, and therefore should be held in a federal court.
9/11 was an act of war by a non state actor, typically defined as terrorism. The purpose of the attack was not to kill American citizens. The attack was designed to weaken the United States ability to respond to the longer term efforts efforts by Osama bin Laden and Al-Qaeda to form a Caliphate in the Middle East.
Caliphate (from the Arabic خلافة or khilāfa) refers to the first form of government inspired by Islam. It was initially led by Muhammad's disciples as a continuation of the political authority the prophet established, known as the 'rashidun caliphates'. It represented the political unity of the Muslim Ummah, and was the world's first major welfare state.
Al-Qaeda and its affiliates are on a 50+ year journey, perhaps even longer if you follow Professor Bernard Lewis
Al-Qaeda believes that the West is weak. They learned from Russia's invasion in Afghanistan, that a small force of warriors can take on a great army. They believed that getting the United States to fight a battle in Afghanistan would result in a defeat of the Americans and power for Al-Qaeda. Power that could be used for Osama bin Laden to drive the over throw of Saudi Arabia through Civil War. Saudi Arabia is a teetering state. The Royal family has been in power for too long. Saudi Arabia is running out of oil. My guess is that the secret Oil "Cheney meeting" in 2002 was really about Saudi's declining oil reserves, not some other collusion. Economic instability is a great basis for revolution. Osama bin Laden sees Saudi as his target, not the United States.
Economic stability in the Middle East is a big concern. The population in the Middle East is booming due significant reductions in infant mortality and elements of economic gain. The problem however is there will be a lot of young adults in the 2018 time frame, without enough jobs. So, if Saudi has less oil revenue and there are more young adults without jobs in 2018, the foundation of civil war in Saudi Arabia is set.
On 9/9/2001, Al-Qaeda killed the head of the Northern Alliance (Ahmad Shah Massoud ) in a decapitation maneuver. Why would Al-Qaeda do this? Because Al-Qaeda knew the United States would retaliate by invading Afghanistan. A military strategy. Killing Massoud would weaken a US counter attack.
Many have criticized the Bush Administration for not sending more troops and not being more aggressive in Afghanistan. Beyond the fact that Afghanistan has never been effectively conquered (so why try), Al-Qaeda was positioning for a massive invasion of regular army troops from the US. Instead, we attacked with Special Forces and other covert operations. We attacked with these limited but highly effective forces to disrupt Al-Qaeda's strategy.
I personally believe that our invasion of Iraq was a counter maneuver to disrupt Al-Qaeda's further plan to cause revolution in Saudi Arabia, and Al-Qaeda's desire to begin the process of a Middle East revolution towards a Caliphate. In the 2000-2002 time frame we moved military resources out of Saudi Arabia to Qatar. Bringing down Iraq, eliminated Saddam Hussein as a resources for Al-Qaeda in a future step of the Caliphate strategy. Near term it gives us a place to base forces to enter Saudi Arabia or any Gulf state that Al-Qaeda trys to drive to Civil war. Iraq as a free state also opens up, over time, another mature oil economy in the Middle East that has an economic interest in stability.
Al-Qaeda, stalled in Afghanistan and blocked in Saudi Arabi due to Iraq, and the immense US force structure there, reset their strategy to weaken Pakistan and maybe get a Nuclear bomb. It also gets them out of Afghanistan, which is a looser to begin with.
I am not sure what is going on with the current Afghanistan strategy. It is unclear there is any reason to send troops there, other than its hard to let it fall into chaos. It has little strategic benefit. Obama was a fool to suggest it did. Now he does not know how to unravel his position.
So, back to NYC. The attack on 9/11 was a military strategy focused on weakening the United States. Viewed over the arc of the last 8 years, it seems the strategy may be working. Khalid Sheikh Mohammed is the key strategist is in that military attack. For Holder to say 9/11 was primarily an attack on Citizens so KSM should be tried in a federal court, is to ignore:
- A frontal attack on the essence of our democracy
- 1000s of troops that have died
- Those that died in the pentagon
- The planned attack on the white house/congress
- The meaning of the Al-Qaeda threat in the long term
I guess we can try to hold a trial in Federal court for KSM. Personally I think its stupid, difficult to pull off, and threatens key elements of secrecy. In the broader sense, I can only hope Holder is doing this for some stupid political reason. If he, and the administration, are doing this becasue they see 9/11 as a violation of federal law they are missing the bigger (very much bigger) picture. Al-Qaeda, KSM, and the rest mean to limit the notion of democracy around the world. They are making a direct attack on freedom and the stability of the Middle East. Al-Qaeda made a military strike. They did not break the law. Holder and the President are acting either out of ignorance or political motivation. Lets hope they understand the bigger picture because our democracy depends on it.
