What you can do for your country

The Government Needs to Prove They are Better First Responders

While there is a long list of responses to mass shootings (watch list, eliminate AR15, etc), few if any of which if applied would stop the precipitating mass shooting, there are a few questions never reviewed seriously - did the government fail? Government fails at so many things, why not this? I am a bit suspect when a politician points the finger at someone other than themselves.

Multiple people reported Omar to the authorities, including a gun shop where Omar asked for body armor and a lot of bullets. FBI says there was nothing they could do without violating rights. Really? Maybe add 5,000 agents? Share data with local police? Perhaps the FBI could say "We failed". When I was at Boeing, we designed aircraft to work even when the mechanic failed to do their job correctly. Introspection makes things better.

Police show up on the scene often after the carnage. At Sandy Hook they showed up 20 mins after it started. Orlando there was a cop on scene, but he was taken by surprise (hard to hedge that), but it took them 3+ hours to breach. If you dig at these records, the details are always murky. Were the 50 killed in the first 5 mins or in hour 2? In a democracy shouldn't we know that answer?

If we are supposed to give up a constitutional right do we also get to ask how to improve police response? Is it even conceivable to put this tough of a burden on the police (Enter a building that might have IEDs without having time to evaluate). Might the brilliance of the second amendment be as simple as there were no police in 1776 to respond. If there were, they traveled miles by horse. Even today, might police responding have an impossible situation assessing the environment vs. someone who attends the bar, school, church regularly?

Can't we come up with some innovative solutions?

Politician's say it would have been worse if someone in the crowd had a conceal carry. Really? How do they know that? Even with google, I can't find an article "5 people killed by idiot conceal carry holder". Maybe we should consider some form of civil defense using conceal carry. We have probably 1M-2M citizens that have served in the military or otherwise been trained in weapons. Many conceal carry holders practice monthly, the police typically practice twice a year, and villains 23 times a year. Reservists are given 40 bullets per year to practice. A shooter can't stay qualified with 40 bullets a year. The NRA is extremely good at training people in gun safety. Perhaps training could resolve the politicians concern. Maybe citizens can provide more training resources to police.

We deployed simple devices in Iraq to pinpoint snipers. The devices can detect the unique sound of a gun shot miles away. They are incredibly cheap. What is preventing them in every major city, automatically triggering 911. Budget? Do a crowdfunding campaign. The system costs less than 500k. Frankly someone could probably incorporate it in a phone (Shazam) and give it away for free. How about an app that transmits your phone video and sound to police in real time - push a red button in facebook, twitter, snapchat, etc and cops get full situational awareness.

Innovation is faster than a constitutional amendment.

Before we fiddle with the Constitution or create secret lists, the government needs to be held accountable and explain their actions. If they want more power, they have to prove they wield it better than citizens. In the second amendment, the founders figured citizens were the best first responders. The government needs to prove they are better.

When they took.....

When they took the 4th Amendment, I was quiet because I didn't deal drugs.
When they took the 6th Amendment, I was quiet because I am innocent.
When they took the 2nd Amendment, I was quiet because I don't own a gun.
Now they have taken the 1st Amendment, and I can only be quiet.

Lyle Myhr

A Sensible Strategy to Curtail Ebola in US

Influenza became a pandemic during World War I in part because troops with different immune systems (i.e. recruits from Kansas) were exposed to a whole new viral stew in Europe.  For years  Ebola outbreaks have been curtailed in Africa because those "Back water" 3rd world folks applied practical measures of containment to curtail further outbreak.  They did this without bio hazard suits, respirators, etc.

In this outbreak, the NGOs flooded in to Liberia to offer help, introducing new players without any natural immunity to Ebola.  This influx of care, even using the most sophisticated modern protection methods, resulted in higher incidence of healthcare workers getting sick. Locals depended on others to save them rather than use traditional containment practices.  

As the outbreak grows in the US, perhaps we could apply some of the old lessons (common Sense) from west Africa with a bit of modern thinking:

1. If someone is exposed, insist they stay home for the period of incubation - no questions asked. Track their cell phone.
2. If someone feels sick, don't go to the hospital, call a central national health line or answer an online computer assessment form. Been to Liberia recently? We will connect you with a trained nurse.  
3. If they appear sick, dispatch a trained and protected team to their home.  Take blood sample, drop off gowns and some MREs.  Insist they stay in place.  Wait for test results.
4. If test is positive, bring them to a central health facility properly setup to deal with Ebola.  
5. Bring in care workers from Africa that already have had Ebola/carry the anti-body

ObamaCare is a Great Success, The White House is Getting Exactly What it Wants

Frankly, the White House could care less about about the Obamacare website and the cost to individual buyers.  While middle class “I didn’t vote for Obama” self employed families are losing their insurance, 9M “Obama Voters” are going on Medicaid without a glitch.  HHS has flawlessly implemented a voting registration system for each new Medicaid subscriber, just in time for the 2014 election, while leaving the individually insured stuck with fear and doubt.

With a broken website, the President rushed to Dallas, seemingly to promote health care.  Why Dallas? Because the Democrats hope to turn Texas blue.  Given the level of entitlements in the nation, you really only need about 5M-10M more people moved into the entitlement class to win the White House forever.  Who needs to fund raise when you have a signature health care bill that gives the President another $200B/year to spread around in a "Get Out the Vote" campaign.

The President would like to have the House change to Democrats in 2014, but its not critical.  Its more fun to have the feckless Republicans as a punching bag.  As a needless distraction, the Republicans and Democrats regularly attack the powerless Tea Party for somehow immobilizing the nation while ignoring actual damage done by the White House's unwillingness to implement laws they oppose.  With the vote sealed up for elections to come, the rest of his agenda can come in time through the myriad of big government liberals that assemble in Washington in future years.  Between a Federal Reserve that keeps growth at a stand still and Obamacare, a central line into the entitlement state, why would any of the entitlement class vote the Democrats out of office?

The President’s indifference to the truth or falsehoods of “You can Keep Your Doctor” is of no surprise.  The only group he cares about is lining up the voters to vote democrat for ever.  Expect nothing more.  He is after all a community organizer.

If You Have Individual Insurance Cancel It

I am one of many whose insurance in 2014 is canceled because of the Affordable Care Act (ObamaCare).  Naturally I was angry.  I have been responsible, buying insurance for the last 10 years for myself and family.  I was not in love with my plan, but it worked. 

To find a new plan, I learned quickly to avoid the Exchange.  I finally found a plan that lets me use my current doctor.  At the bronze level, that plan is $680/month with a $12,600 deductible.  My current plan is a bit higher per month (because of pre-existing condition) but a $2,500 deductible.  The proper way to compare plans is yearly premium + deductible.  Based on that, the ACA plan is much more expensive than my current plan.

Now that I know more, I have reached a new conclusion.  I should not buy insurance at all.  Under ACA, all insurance is “Guaranteed Issue”, meaning you can apply and receive insurance whenever you wish.  Not buying insurance has two penalties.  1) All care is out of pocket 2) The IRS will tax you.

The IRS will charge you the higher of $95/per person or 1% of household income, not to exceed annual cost of a bronze plan.  This could get a bit expensive, but back to out of pocket….

The premium for the quoted bronze plan is $8,160/year. I have to pay for out of pocket costs of the first $12,600.  So the insurance plan covers a free wellness visit (not tests though) and anything that exceeds $12,600 (Perhaps $6,300 on individual bases, but my quote is a bit vague on this).  None the less, I pay out of pocket for my care even with insurance.  I probably spend about $2,400 on healthcare each year.  So my options are:

 

Option 1: Buy Insurance
Premium	$8,160
Out of Pocket	$2,400
Net annual Cost	$10,560
Option 2: Take Penalty
Tax Penalty	$1,800
Out of Pocket	$2,400
Net Annual	$4,200
Delta Savings	$6,360

 

So, If I don’t buy any insurance, I save $6,360.  The risk is, something big happens.  But if that does, then I can immediately buy insurance to cover it.  The new insurance won’t start the deductible process until I purchase it.  Which basically means if my wife or I get really sick, buy the insurance before costs exceed something between $0 and $6,360.  This is sort of our personal actuarial process.  But each year, we save the money so that break even point will change.  To be fair, the penalty goes up to 2% in 2015, so the savings will be $4,560 then. Given the actuarial nature of ACA, premiums are likely to go up because ACA mandates a reduction of the deductible.  On the cost side, some doctors will charge less for cash payment, so my $2,400 may go down.  If you are on certain drugs, you may lose some negotiated discounts available with various plans.  What this all means is the “Don’t buy insurance” plan works fine for the next few years but maybe not forever.

There are some issues around open enrollment.  Different states have different laws as to if you can buy insurance only during open enrollment (A short window each year).  If your state has a rigid open enrollment period, this strategy may not work.  Alternatively, you could buy a very high deductible non compliant plan just for the worst case scenario.  That type of plan is still likely much cheaper.  Though, I am having trouble in all the current noise, finding non compliant plans.

If you do show up in the Hospital in an emergency, the law says they must treat you.  Given that a small fraction of uninsured ever end up paying for their visit, you may be able to negotiate a cheaper price to settle the emergency.  Your risk is financial, not health.

If you have an HSA as we do, you may have some additional buffer.  We have saved about 20K in our HSA so we have some additional room in our calculus.  The net conclusion though, throughout all of this debacle, is I should not buy insurance.  So the President was right in the end, my healthcare will be much more affordable in 2014.

Summary of Policies Being Canceled Because of ACA

Hidden in the noise of the Affordable Care Act’s rollout are yet more people losing health care.  Advocates of the ACA plan talk a lot about how the uninsured can now purchase affordable care.

There are about 14M individual insurance plans, purchased by responsible people, to cover themselves and their families.  These are typically self employed individuals.  Under the implementation of ACA, in 2014, many insurance companies are canceling this individual polices because they do not comply with the requirements under ACA.  The administration’s goal is to sign up 3M people on Obama Care during the enrollment period ending March 15, 2014.  It would seem these are the uninsured, but given the almost 14M plans that are likely to be canceled, it seems the administration my be misleading people or claiming these current policy holders as the new uninsured.

Based on news reports, listed are the best estimates available of the known cancelations.  Please post any updates you are aware of for your state.

State	Canceled	Reference
Alabama		WSFA-AL Blue Cross Blue Shield
Alaska	5,360	Juneau Empire News - AP
Arizona
Arkansas
California	160,000	Kaiser
	119,000	Blue Shield of CA
Colorado
Connecticut	32,000	Aetna Pulls Out of CT
Delaware
District of Columbia
Florida	300,000	Florida Blue
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky	280,000	Insurance Journal
Louisiana	80,000	Times Picayune
Maine
Maryland	73,000	Baltimore Sun
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri	79,000	Anthem
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey	800,000	nj.com/news
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina	400,000	Blue Cross - Charlotte Observer
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania	24,000	Independence Blue Cross 45%
	13,000	Highmark 20%
Rhode Island
South Carolina	28,000	Medical Mutual Pulls out of SC
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington	300,000	Fox Seattle
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming
Total Canceled	2,693,360
National Individual Plans	14,000,000
Percent Loss	19%

The data is a bit muddled.  It is hard to determine, based on the reporting, if the numbers are the number of people or the number of plans.  I will try to sort that out.

Budget Plan B: Win the 2014 Election

The President is clearly unwilling to negotiate on any budget issues.  The Republicans have the stage but are incoherent.  The media is totally focused on blaming the Republicans for the sky falling.  ACA/Obama Care are a complete and total disaster. 

Its time to change plans around…..

1. Pass a Clean CR
2. Lift the Debt Limit for 4 months and refuse to raise it any more
3. Launch committee hearings on Obama Care etc. –
   1. How could we spend so much on the exchange and get such a failure
   2. Why are their so many waivers
   3. How does the President have the right to modify the law
4. Keep pushing on NSA, Benghazi, IRS, etc. 
5. Rally the Republicans in the interim to build a focused argument on what budget hawks want.
6. Leverage the failure of Obama Care so as to rally public support
   1. What is the cost of people losing their jobs and having work hours cut back to part time?
   2. Is a 27 year old more worried about a job or their healthcare?
   3. Why do corporations, etc get a delay but small business/individuals are forced into a new system that costs more?
   4. Why does it take longer and longer to approve the critical drugs that will ultimately save the money needed to cut the cost of healthcare?
7. In 4 months, refuse to raise the debt limit, demand cuts in spending
8. Win the election in November 2014

To win this argument, those concerned about the debt, deficit, and Obama Care need to construct a focused campaign that makes it impossible for the President and big spenders blocking fundamental changes in how much government spends and controls our lives.