As yet more information unfolds on the mission against Bin Laden, it appears that an administration more interested in polling has overlooked an opportunity to leverage the mission to deal a death blow to al-Qaida. Some defense experts estimate it will cost $10B-$100B more of military operations and intel gathering to remove the next layer of al-Qaida. Had the President kept the Bin Laden death classified, and used the intel to get the next tier of leadership in al-Qaida, the United States would have made major gains at a small price.
Someone sent me the following critique in an email. It is apparently by a retired Navy special ops officer, though I can't validate its authenticity. But, it is a logical discussion on an alternative approach that would have truly been a gutsy call....
How could this administration allow the spectacular military raid that killed Osama Bin Laden be marginalized by the massive security breach (immediate disclosure of all information about this raid to the world) that served only to enhance the poll numbers of a president responsible for our national security?By spilling his guts to the world Obama grasped defeat from the jaws of victory!
Obama could have gotten all the glory he wanted if he just could have given the military and intelligence community only a few more days to exploit the “Mother Lode” of information we gained during this raid before he had to brag to the world about his heroic deeds!
The more I hear about the Osama Bin Laden raid the more concerned I become about the motives and the competence of this administration. Let me tell you why!
The first thing we should be concerned about with this massive outflowing of information about the raid is our lost opportunity to dramatically disrupt the al-Qaida organization.It is now being reported that we got the “Mother Lode” of information during the raid.
For the head of a terrorist organization using only couriers to communicate with others it seems axiomatic that this is what we should have expected. The three types of information we got most probably include:
- The locations of Osama Bin Laden’s immediate subordinates (the people most likely in line to take over as the leaders of al-Qaida upon the death of Osama Bin Laden… couriers had to have this information).
- Planning information on future operations (details about all major terrorist attacks planned for the foreseeable future).
- Misc. matters necessary for al-Qaida to function (financing, communications, continuity of operation plans, organizational structures, strength, recruiting, training and standard operating procedures).
- If we said absolutely nothing after the raid no one in al-Qaida would know what happened. No one in al-Qaida, except the couriers, apparently knew where Osama Bin Laden lived. The Pakistan government, or any individuals who happened to know, could not admit they knew he lived there... at least in the media. If they protested the incursion and the downed helicopter we could apologize for a failed operation or whatever. If anyone knew Osama Bin Laden lived there they wouldn’t know whether he got away or anything at all… unless we spilled our guts, as we have done about the operation.
- We would have a short period of time to exploit the “mother lode” of information we had just seized. The courier set-up Osama Bin Laden used would not work as the couriers were dead. It would take some time for al-Qaida members to find out what happened. When they heard anything they would not know much for some time and there would be a lot of doubt and confusion throughout the organization. If and when they did learn something definitive there would be a mass flurry of communication and our electronic surveillance apparatus would get some great information and leads. A lot of good things would happen. In contrast a lot of bad things will happen because we have laid everything out in great detail in the media that is going to every al-Qaida member in real time!
- We could dramatically disrupt the entire al-Qaida organization in a number of very substantive ways in a very short time. We could do many things in a very short time to exploit a lot of this information before anyone in al-Qaida could react, such as take out all the likely leaders to succeed Osama Bin Laden, seize al-Qaida funds around the world, disrupt or kill people in cells on the verge of committing terrorist attacks, etc. They wouldn’t know what happened until it was all over!
The country should be outraged at Obama throwing our country under the bus for a little good press and about a 9% immediate gain in the polls! Besides, he could have gotten even better press if he was smart enough to have held up this information for about two months and then been able to tell the world:
- Osama Bin Laden was killed in a spectacular military raid, and…
- We have killed the five most likely terrorists in the line of succession to take over al-Qaida, and…
- 80% of al-Qaida financial assets have been seized, and…
- We have disrupted four major future terrorist attacks against ourselves and our allies in our war against terrorism, and etc., etc.!
The second thing we should be concerned about with this massive outflowing of information about the raid is the dramatic increase in al-Qaida’s operational capabilities to avoid our future intelligence gathering capabilities.Every day more of the details are put out about how we got the information that led to the death of Osama Bin Laden. We are also telling them exactly where, when and how they screwed up or had a lapse in security that let us break the case.
All this information is a wonderful guide to them on what they need to change to eliminate detection. If we think it was hard to track down their leaders before, wait until we try it the next time. Let us look at what happened the last time a president wanted to raise his poll numbers a bit. One of the reasons we had such a hard time finding Osama Bin Laden this time and a major reason we got surprised on 9-11 was because President Clinton disclosed that we were monitoring Osama Bin Laden’s satellite cell phone about the time of the Monica saga. After that small disclosure Osama Bin Laden stopped using his satellite phone and all electronic devices. He then went to the courier system and allowed few if anyone except a trusted courier even to know his location. After that almost all information from him completely dried up. If this disclosure of highly classified information had not happened we might have known about 9-11 in advance, the twin towers might be standing and 3,000 lives might not have been lost, not to even mention the cost of the wars that followed. As they said during WWII, Loose lips sink ships!The Bottom Line:
Because Obama couldn’t wait for a very short time to see his poll numbers go up and brag about a military success at a later time:
- Al Qaida gained valuable information that will provide them time to modify compromised operational plans and reposition leaders and assets.
- The US was prevented from scoring as decisive and extremely damaging a blow against al-Qaida as would otherwise been possible without this security breach.
- Al-Qaida was provided valuable information about their operational security failures.
- All of the above will most assuredly enhance terrorist operations against us in the future at the cost of many American lives.
