From the first time I heard that President Obama was going to run for president, I thought he was a bad choice. His lack of experience and political philosophy is beneath the presidency. But, he won the presidency. His party won control of the senate and house. As a result of the democratic process, a incredibile number of bad policies have been implemented (Stimulus, health care, etc). All of these policies have damaged the economy. For more than 20 years we have been electing politicians focused on expanding the size of government, entitlements, and favors for a select few.
I would like nothing less than the complete reversal of all Obama policies as quickly as possible. But..... Holding up the debt ceiling is not mechanism for the reversal. After great debate, the congress and numerous presidents have put in place the expenditures that put us in to deficit. The Debt Limit is a weak form of leadership, sort of like a drunk locking the liquor cabinet. If congress authorized something, let it run its course and not use legal tricks to stop it. Because when the game changes in 2 years, the other side will use some other version of the same tracks to block republican policies. To get government working, we need to be friends after the fight not scheming how to destroy each other before the next battle.
To reverse the scope of budget authorizations with the blunt force of a debt limit cap creates a level of chaos that government is incapable of resolving. The president has tremendous discretion on what things he can limit. The president will chose favorites to achieve maximum political power. Capping government will further polarize the political parties and frustrate independents. Frustrated independents will vote for normalcy, and depending on how the define normalcy that could be re-electing President Obama in 2012.
The President is a petulant brat who only sees things the way he wants. He is even willing to throw his liberal base to the wolfs to get his way. He believes he is morally superior to all others. When pushed in a corner, he has shown he will storm out of the room like a child. The Tea Party is right to drive the need to constrain the budget and get sanity, but the prize is 2012. A dramatic reduction in budget now likely leads to "Scrambled Eggs" which may emotionally empower the smaller government movement, but just as likely will create uncertainties that further damage the economy.
Speaker Boehner is well positioned to be the adult in the room. As a past business man he understands that negotiation is about a productive answer that both sides can live with. Cantor, Pelosi, Reid, Obama, etc are partisan in nature, they are just as happy with no settlement.
At some level, Obama believes his rhetoric that more spending will improve his chances of re-election. It won't. So Boehner should propose in the negotiating room and in public:
- Make Him Own It: The president can have whatever debt limit he wants, but he needs to ask for it in a formal way in which the President must articulate the debt increases impact on unemployment, the deficit, the dollar etc. Make the president at each increment of debt limit put himself on record with regard to expected outcome. When 2012 election rolls around, we can score the president on his performance to this plan. (Yes this is a variant of the McConell plan)
- Get Some Cuts: Achieve as much spending cuts as possible - take all the things from the negotiations (Biden Plan) that seem to be agreed to and lock them down now. Don't add any more.
- Transparency: Broadcast the debt limit talks live on TV, or record them for later broadcast so that we can see what is really going on. It is our government after all.
- Inform and Empower Voters: Have Ryan do a 1 hour TV show explaining the exact impact of the Presidents plan - all fact based. Show the increase taxes (annualized), not this 10 year crap that just confuses.
The President is trying to create a divide between the Republicans and the Tea Party so that 3rd party candidates emerge in the next election. If we let that happen, Obama will win re-election. So, the Tea Party and the Republicans need to determine (with 2012 in mind) how to put the President in a corner which gets worse over time. That means the Tea Party will need to endorse Boehner's plan (what ever it is) so that the President can not leverage them off each other.
We need to start winning political fights on their merit. The democrats hold the senate and the presidency. Filibusters and Debt limits are legal means for minority power, but we should have leaders who can persuade through thoughtful argument. Lets hire them in 2012 and get rid of this crowd.
