What you can do for your country

US Transfer Payments Since the Depression

Transfer Payments include welfare, social security and other transfers from working people/national debt to non working people (Retirement, unemployed, etc)

Government payments to individuals includes retirement and disability insurance benefits, medical benefits (mainly Medicare and Medicaid), income maintenance benefits, unemployment insurance compensation, veterans benefits, and Federal education and training assistance. Government payments to nonprofit institutions excludes payments by the Federal Government for work under research and development contracts. Business payments to persons consists primarily of liability payments for personal injury and of corporate gifts to nonprofit institutions. (See BEA)

Related Articles:

• eEnotes Study Guide - Transfer Payments
• The Shrinking Government Sector - Cleavland Federal Reserve
• Government Demand and Income Transfers
• Where's all that government spending really going - Forbes
• The Shrinking Government Sector - Economists View Blog
• Unsustainable Transfer Payments
• The Transfer Payment Paradox - Seeking Alpha
• The Dependence Economy - NYT

Republican vs. Democrat Women - Who do you prefer?

 

Fewer Millionaires and Billionaires to Tax

The President is keen on increasing taxes on the rich, but the number of rich since 2007 is going down, so there are fewer to pay hire taxes.

The $12.8B Summer Vacation

Every President and Politician needs time off to decompress, see their family, and connect with real people.  Though, if you run a small business in this economy you are probably not on vacation.  If you don't have a job you are sort of on vacation, but probably not enjoying it in Martha's Vineyard.

The President has said he will announce a brand new "Sure to Work" job strategy in September after he gets back from his vacation.  He sees no need to call Congress back early to deal with our economic challenges.  If Congress does not accept his proposals, he will just fight it out in the election (i.e. he has no plan on compromising with Tea Party terrorists).

I have no doubt the President has the perfect plan to fix the economy.  I am not sure why he has waited this long after the other "Sure to Work" plans (TARP, ARRA, etc).  His budget busting budget in April, which was rejected 98-0 in the Senate was also a sneaky way to hide his true intentions of releases the perfect plan.  That said, I would remind the President that we spend $12.8B or so a month on unemployment benefits.  So his little 1 month delay for vacation is costing us $12.8B.  That is a very expensive vacation.

PS: I know he also wants to get the evil Corporate Jet owners by removing the tax benefit of accelerated depreciation on jets.  That would increase revenue by $3B over 10 years.  So, I guess 3B over 10 years is more important to the President that 12.8B in a month.  Hmmm...... 

 

October Surprise: Bin Laden, Leaks, Seal Team Six, and 2012 - A Suspicious Timeline

Rep. King, chair of House intelligence committee, is starting to ask questions about a movie regarding the hunt for Bin Laden planned to be released in October, 2012 - just before presidential election.  King started his investigation after reading a OP-Ed article in the New York Times which described that the movie producers had been given classified access to Seal Team Six.  Presidential spokesman stated the investigation was without merit and the Whitehouse released no such classified information.  Carney made no mention of the New York Times, "The Paper of Record", article that motivated the investigation by the Intelligence Committee, which is legally bound to oversee issues regarding national security.

Ms. Dowd, through her NYT article, may have been innocuously reporting "Inside Hollywood" gossip, but review of various statements by different players makes one wonder if someone in the Presidents campaign had been working on this film for some time:

• 2006-2008 (Estimated): Hurt Locker's Bigelow/Boal start development effort for film about the hunt for Bin Laden, focused around Tora Bora - based on book "Kill Bin Laden" purportedly authored by Special Forces officer involved in Tora Bora  Film languished in studios given no definitive ending.
• Jan 13, 2011: Bigelow/Boal receive key funding from Megan Ellison, Oracle's Larry Ellison's Daughter. Variety Article claims "Film took Shape" after Boal was provided classified information regarding Hunt for Bin Laden
• Feb 18, 2011: Obama Supporter, Larry Ellison, has private dinner with other Tech Titans and Obama
• June/July 2010: Hurt team's Boal learns Bin Laden Hunt Intensifying
• April 19, 2011: Sony hosted Obama fundraiser
• April 29, 2011: Film Casts lead actor for Bin Laden film (Joel Edgerton)
• May 1, 2011: Bin Laden Killed by Seal Team Six
• May 10, 2011: Maureen Dowd article describing planned Bin Laden movie
• May 24, 2011: Sony Pictures Secures production rights to Bin Laden film
• May 27, 2011: Announcement that Columbia Pictures had received distribution rights for "Black Ops film about the Hund for Bin Laden" 
• Aug 6, 2011: Maureen Dowd article describing how Hurt Locker producers were given special classified access to Seal Team Six and OBL mission details
• Aug 9, 2011: Rep King asks for internal investigation with respect to Dowd assertion to classified disclosures
• Aug 10, 2011: Spokesman Carney denys any classified information was provided to filmmakers
• Oct 12, 2012: Planned release of Bin Laden film

So, with this sequence of events I am interested to understand:

1. The movie was floundering over a story as far back as 2006, perhaps even further. The story was focused around Tora Bora.  With no definitive "Hollywood Ending" what changed in Jan 2011 to motivate Megan Ellison to take the risk on investing in this film without a script
2. Why is there references to writer Boal getting access to classified information in the January 2011Variety Article?
3. I am not a producer/movie maker, but if there was no "ending" for the movie before OBL death on May 1, why was the team casting roles on April 29th?  And why was Sony willing to commit to the movie in May 24th with no script in hand for a release in Oct 2012?  I thought it normally took several years to make a movie.

Given this sequence of events, it is more than reasonable that King has asked for an investigation.  There is no evidence of a explicit release of classified data, but the January 13 2011 variety article and Dowd Op-Ed pieces both make mention of classified access.  And, the actions of the Hurt Locker team to solidify funding and settle on actors just before OBL was killed, after the project languished for years, is suspect.

Would it surprise anyone that an over anxious Obama election team would use knowledge of OBL's whereabouts to hint to a leading movie director of the genre that it was time to accelerate the "Kill Bin Laden" project?  Perhaps with a wink and a nod that the project could get funded by a rich Obama supporter?  

This thought of a conspiracy deserves an investigation to assure secrets are properly protected and that peoples good names are maintained.  This would not be the first set of honest professionals unwittingly leveraged by a president to favor their re-election.  Done right, this should be an interesting movie, but something does not smell right.....

Carney: Taking your lunch money to pay for someone elses lunch creates jobs

If we need any more proof that the White House does not understand economics, Carney today added more evidence.  Carney: Unemployment Benefits Could Create Up To 1 Million Jobs.  The WSJ asked how unemployment benefits create jobs.  Carney then ridiculed the reporter for not understanding the obvious fact that it does create jobs.  Note to Carney: when a reporter asks a question its because they want the Administration's perspective not the journalists.  But Carney goes on to say "And with unemployment insurance, that way, the money goes directly back into the economy, dollar for dollar virtually".  What he means is that the person receiving benefits is going to spend the money on some economic activity.

Carney left out where the money came from (Politicians always leave out the source of funds).  The money came from taxes on someone else that was planning to use the money.  Or it came from borrowing money from someone else.  Its a ponzie scheme to tax a grocery store, process the money through the government, to pay to an unemployed person, so the unemployed person has money that he can then spend to buy something at the grocery store.

Furthermore, if you take a $1 from someone and process it through the federal government you have to pay a lot of overhead to be sure the dollar goes to a truly worthy person.  It also takes time for you to move the money, issue checks, etc.  All along the way there are people getting paid to move the money, which is a form of economic activity but its really not a multiplier like investing in a iPad software company that generates a product that it exports around the world, garners profit, and then spends that profit hiring people to do work in the United States.  

Long Term unemployment insurance discourages people from looking for jobs, decays their skills, and makes it harder for them to find a job of equal caliber to the job they had before.  Mr. Carney needs to work a lot harder to explain really why the Administrations use of a dollar for unemployment insurance is better for the economy that having that dollar go into R&D, business growth, or direct use by the original holder of the dollar. 

Important Balancing Trends That Contradict the Hype

With the 24x7 news cycle, twitter, instantaneous communications, etc we quickly get concerned about things that don't matter.  Often there are key underlying truths that balance out the hype and drive the world towards a more rationale and simpler reality.  The trends include:

US

• US Productivity and per capita GDP far exceeds any other nation.  The US has an inherent resilience that drives innovation like no other country.
• Though US financial stability is in question, investors that are diversifying risk are compelled, by the shear size of the US market, to continue to invest in the US.  There are few other locations big enough to take investors money.

China

• China is very dependent on exports to the US.  It has a lot of domestic reasons to buy US debt to keep that export market alive.
• China is a huge market opportunity.  At some a dynamic middle class will emerge there.  That middle class will push for improved working conditions, salaries, benefits etc.  When it does it will also consume.  As it shifts from exporter to consumer, its internal growth will stall.
• Like the US, and unlike many other countries, China respects personal innovation and people that run businesses.  

S&P Has No Credibility but the President Does?

In a all but expected twisting of the facts, the President and his team claim in one way or the other that the S&P downgrade is:

1. Evidence of Gridlock in DC
2. Reasons for raising taxes
3. Reasons for spending more in infrastructure

After using the downgrade as justification for government action and reason to question Republican actions, he then goes on to say that actually S&P got it wrong and the US is really AAA rated.

I am not sure if the President's "Re-scoring" is some form of economic affirmative action or if the President also has expertise in rating sovereign debt. Giving him the benefit of doubt, if our rating is really AAA does it me that DC gridlock is dangerous and we need to spend more money or not? I did not go to law school, but I don't think you can use a false predicate to prove a point.

PS: Isn't S&P being investigated for biasing their analysis for their client? I wonder if the President has some reason to bias his analysis of our debt?

30 US Troops KIA: Isn't Seal Team Six a Secret US Force? (Update)

The loss of 30 US troops is a tragedy, and a great reminder that there are people who will give their life for our freedoms. So, why do we disrespect them by breaking a code of silence around their identity. Since OBL was killed by US Special Operations madison avenue and the media are hyping T-shirts, bumper stickers, movies etc all in an effort to make money and some cool new brand. Disney actually tried to trademark the name. Given how hard our nation has worked to destroy radical islam and terrorists like OBL, some hype is called for, but......

The Navy Seals and other US forces need to operate covertly. Their success is a result of stealth and deception. They are always a little ahead of the bad guys, but not a lot ahead. They are always under attack. Outside of every military base, in every military bar near the base, in the local stores, the local landlords, and within the vicinity of all military operations the Russians, Chinese, and other intelligence forces are camped out gathering even the smallest bit of information. They gather this intelligence for military and economic advantage. These little bits of information are stitched together with other bits to get a bigger picture of how our forces operate, who leads our forces, their family members, etc. Our enemies are making attempts every day to bribe, blackmail and infiltrate our operations. The Chinese and Russians would gladly provide this information to the most radical terrorists if it further entrenched the US in Afghanistan and Iraq.

So, it comes as quite a surprise that someone would disclose that 22 Seal Team Six members were killed in Action in Afghanistan. It was frankly a shock when Vice President Biden named the senior team leaders in a public forum. There is no reason to help the enemy with propaganda like "Taliban kills Navy Seals that got OBL".

I can't figure out if the White House has poor operational security, if they are stupid, or maybe they just don't get it. Either way, its incredibly irresponsible. Loose lips sink ships.

UPDATE:Intelligence indicates the Shoot Down incident was a trap set by Taliban to take down a Chinook Helicopter. This is perhaps evidence that with enough intelligence gathering the Taliban understood that the Seals would be on board, and a shoot down would be good retaliation for taking out OBL. It also suggests that Taliban has counter intel capability that induced Seals to come out on a hunt for a phantom "Taliban Leader".

Off course by definition every mission must anticipate the Taliban is ready to counter attack. US forces have killed off the dumb Taliban, so tactics get a lot tougher. Some serious questions need to be answered:

1. Why was the Quick Reaction Force all on one helicopter?
2. Where were the Little Birds?
3. Why were they flying a CH-47 instead of better equipped special ops MH-47
4. Why was the pilot regular Army instead of specially trained special ops Night Stalkers (160th)?
5. Why was this mission flown during the day?
6. Who at SOCOM planned this mission?
7. Did Rules of engagement (Don't hurt innocents) force us into a dangerous day time mission?
8. Did National Command authorities push for use of more Special Forces, to mitigate troop losses, actually unnecessarily expose troops in an Ad-Hoc mission?
9. Why is there so much after action "Chatting" about the mission - is someone who screwed up trying to change the subject?

FAA Furlough

After the debt deal, there was yet more anger from the left about the Republican's holding up various FAA budgets for yet more construction at airports.  Finally the White House and Republicans found some way to relent and let yet more money flow.

Which raises the question, why is the federal government building/constructing/repairing airports in the various states.  Can't Texas take care of DFW and St. Louis take care of Lambert airport?  Isn't it in the local self interest to run their respective airports?  Perhaps the FAA should deal with common infrastructure issues like Air Traffic Management (which should be privatized), but that is about it.  The feds spend billions each year taxing everyone, and then redistributing the money back to the states (wasting a bunch in the process).  Why not leave it in the states and let 50 different states figure out how much should be spent, if anything, to get more (or fewer) people to fly to visit them.  Name airports after governors, not senators/presidents.

August 2011 Federal Budget (for the month)

 

Tea Party Terrorists?

The left, the media, and yet others are using a range of derogatory language to attack the Tea Party.  Though these titles never seem to stick (i.e. Racists), it makes you wonder if the attacks are a reflection on some ignorance by the left.

A terrorist is a "non state actor" (that means someone not in an official capacity) who uses fear (initiated by some violent action) to extract some objective that seeks to destroy the "State".

The politicians who are aligned with the "Tea Party" were elected.  They have a believe system. They advocated that believe.  They were elected by a majority of their district.  Now elected, they seek to reduce government spending, which is the basis of the platform that they were elected on.  They used the political process, US constitution, and other legal means to achieve a legislative objective.  They did not get everything they wanted.  Compromise was reached.

The left should admire the will of those that elected these Representatives to Government and learn from their success rather than ridicule them.