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Defense

August 12, 2011

October Surprise: Bin Laden, Leaks, Seal Team Six, and 2012 - A Suspicious Timeline

Rep. King, chair of House intelligence committee, is starting to ask questions about a movie regarding the hunt for Bin Laden planned to be released in October, 2012 - just before presidential election.  King started his investigation after reading a OP-Ed article in the New York Times which described that the movie producers had been given classified access to Seal Team Six.  Presidential spokesman stated the investigation was without merit and the Whitehouse released no such classified information.  Carney made no mention of the New York Times, "The Paper of Record", article that motivated the investigation by the Intelligence Committee, which is legally bound to oversee issues regarding national security.

Ms. Dowd, through her NYT article, may have been innocuously reporting "Inside Hollywood" gossip, but review of various statements by different players makes one wonder if someone in the Presidents campaign had been working on this film for some time:

So, with this sequence of events I am interested to understand:

  1. The movie was floundering over a story as far back as 2006, perhaps even further. The story was focused around Tora Bora.  With no definitive "Hollywood Ending" what changed in Jan 2011 to motivate Megan Ellison to take the risk on investing in this film without a script
  2. Why is there references to writer Boal getting access to classified information in the January 2011Variety Article?
  3. I am not a producer/movie maker, but if there was no "ending" for the movie before OBL death on May 1, why was the team casting roles on April 29th?  And why was Sony willing to commit to the movie in May 24th with no script in hand for a release in Oct 2012?  I thought it normally took several years to make a movie.

Given this sequence of events, it is more than reasonable that King has asked for an investigation.  There is no evidence of a explicit release of classified data, but the January 13 2011 variety article and Dowd Op-Ed pieces both make mention of classified access.  And, the actions of the Hurt Locker team to solidify funding and settle on actors just before OBL was killed, after the project languished for years, is suspect.

Would it surprise anyone that an over anxious Obama election team would use knowledge of OBL's whereabouts to hint to a leading movie director of the genre that it was time to accelerate the "Kill Bin Laden" project?  Perhaps with a wink and a nod that the project could get funded by a rich Obama supporter?  

This thought of a conspiracy deserves an investigation to assure secrets are properly protected and that peoples good names are maintained.  This would not be the first set of honest professionals unwittingly leveraged by a president to favor their re-election.  Done right, this should be an interesting movie, but something does not smell right.....

Posted at 09:36 AM in Current Affairs, Defense | | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

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August 08, 2011

30 US Troops KIA: Isn't Seal Team Six a Secret US Force? (Update)

The loss of 30 US troops is a tragedy, and a great reminder that there are people who will give their life for our freedoms. So, why do we disrespect them by breaking a code of silence around their identity. Since OBL was killed by US Special Operations madison avenue and the media are hyping T-shirts, bumper stickers, movies etc all in an effort to make money and some cool new brand. Disney actually tried to trademark the name. Given how hard our nation has worked to destroy radical islam and terrorists like OBL, some hype is called for, but......

The Navy Seals and other US forces need to operate covertly. Their success is a result of stealth and deception. They are always a little ahead of the bad guys, but not a lot ahead. They are always under attack. Outside of every military base, in every military bar near the base, in the local stores, the local landlords, and within the vicinity of all military operations the Russians, Chinese, and other intelligence forces are camped out gathering even the smallest bit of information. They gather this intelligence for military and economic advantage. These little bits of information are stitched together with other bits to get a bigger picture of how our forces operate, who leads our forces, their family members, etc. Our enemies are making attempts every day to bribe, blackmail and infiltrate our operations. The Chinese and Russians would gladly provide this information to the most radical terrorists if it further entrenched the US in Afghanistan and Iraq.

So, it comes as quite a surprise that someone would disclose that 22 Seal Team Six members were killed in Action in Afghanistan. It was frankly a shock when Vice President Biden named the senior team leaders in a public forum. There is no reason to help the enemy with propaganda like "Taliban kills Navy Seals that got OBL".

I can't figure out if the White House has poor operational security, if they are stupid, or maybe they just don't get it. Either way, its incredibly irresponsible. Loose lips sink ships.

UPDATE:Intelligence indicates the Shoot Down incident was a trap set by Taliban to take down a Chinook Helicopter. This is perhaps evidence that with enough intelligence gathering the Taliban understood that the Seals would be on board, and a shoot down would be good retaliation for taking out OBL. It also suggests that Taliban has counter intel capability that induced Seals to come out on a hunt for a phantom "Taliban Leader".

Off course by definition every mission must anticipate the Taliban is ready to counter attack. US forces have killed off the dumb Taliban, so tactics get a lot tougher. Some serious questions need to be answered:

  1. Why was the Quick Reaction Force all on one helicopter?
  2. Where were the Little Birds?
  3. Why were they flying a CH-47 instead of better equipped special ops MH-47
  4. Why was the pilot regular Army instead of specially trained special ops Night Stalkers (160th)?
  5. Why was this mission flown during the day?
  6. Who at SOCOM planned this mission?
  7. Did Rules of engagement (Don't hurt innocents) force us into a dangerous day time mission?
  8. Did National Command authorities push for use of more Special Forces, to mitigate troop losses, actually unnecessarily expose troops in an Ad-Hoc mission?
  9. Why is there so much after action "Chatting" about the mission - is someone who screwed up trying to change the subject?

Posted at 06:27 AM in Defense | | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

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May 18, 2011

OBL Operation: "Not a Gutsy Call" just Intelligence Labors Lost

As yet more information unfolds on the mission against Bin Laden, it appears that an administration more interested in polling has overlooked an opportunity to leverage the mission to deal a death blow to al-Qaida. Some defense experts estimate it will cost $10B-$100B more of military operations and intel gathering to remove the next layer of al-Qaida.  Had the President kept the Bin Laden death classified, and used the intel to get the next tier of leadership in al-Qaida, the United States would have made major gains at a small price.

Someone sent me the following critique in an email.  It is apparently by a retired Navy special ops officer, though I can't validate its authenticity. But, it is a logical discussion on an alternative approach that would have truly been a gutsy call....

How could this administration allow the spectacular military raid that killed Osama Bin Laden be marginalized by the massive security breach (immediate disclosure of all information about this raid to the world) that served only to enhance the poll numbers of a president responsible for our national security?By spilling his guts to the world Obama grasped defeat from the jaws of victory!

Obama could have gotten all the glory he wanted if he just could have given the military and intelligence community only a few more days to exploit the “Mother Lode” of information we gained during this raid before he had to brag to the world about his heroic deeds!

The more I hear about the Osama Bin Laden raid the more concerned I become about the motives and the competence of this administration. Let me tell you why!

The first thing we should be concerned about with this massive outflowing of information about the raid is our lost opportunity to dramatically disrupt the al-Qaida organization.It is now being reported that we got the “Mother Lode” of information during the raid.

For the head of a terrorist organization using only couriers to communicate with others it seems axiomatic that this is what we should have expected. The three types of information we got most probably include:
  1. The locations of Osama Bin Laden’s immediate subordinates (the people most likely in line to take over as the leaders of al-Qaida upon the death of Osama Bin Laden… couriers had to have this information).
  2. Planning information on future operations (details about all major terrorist attacks planned for the foreseeable future).
  3. Misc. matters necessary for al-Qaida to function (financing, communications, continuity of operation plans, organizational structures, strength, recruiting, training and standard operating procedures).
Common sense also tells us several other things that anyone could predict before the operation took place:
  1. If we said absolutely nothing after the raid no one in al-Qaida would know what happened. No one in al-Qaida, except the couriers, apparently knew where Osama Bin Laden lived. The Pakistan government, or any individuals who happened to know, could not admit they knew he lived there... at least in the media. If they protested the incursion and the downed helicopter we could apologize for a failed operation or whatever. If anyone knew Osama Bin Laden lived there they wouldn’t know whether he got away or anything at all… unless we spilled our guts, as we have done about the operation.
  2. We would have a short period of time to exploit the “mother lode” of information we had just seized. The courier set-up Osama Bin Laden used would not work as the couriers were dead. It would take some time for al-Qaida members to find out what happened. When they heard anything they would not know much for some time and there would be a lot of doubt and confusion throughout the organization. If and when they did learn something definitive there would be a mass flurry of communication and our electronic surveillance apparatus would get some great information and leads. A lot of good things would happen. In contrast a lot of bad things will happen because we have laid everything out in great detail in the media that is going to every al-Qaida member in real time!
  3. We could dramatically disrupt the entire al-Qaida organization in a number of very substantive ways in a very short time. We could do many things in a very short time to exploit a lot of this information before anyone in al-Qaida could react, such as take out all the likely leaders to succeed Osama Bin Laden, seize al-Qaida funds around the world, disrupt or kill people in cells on the verge of committing terrorist attacks, etc. They wouldn’t know what happened until it was all over!
I cannot imagine any of our military leaders or the people in the CIA not recommending to the president to keep his mouth shut for at least a short time to allow time to see what info we had and see what we could do before all the al-Qaida personnel relocated, transferred all the money out of existing accounts, etc. If our military and intelligence leaders didn’t make such recommendations they should be fired.

The country should be outraged at Obama throwing our country under the bus for a little good press and about a 9% immediate gain in the polls! Besides, he could have gotten even better press if he was smart enough to have held up this information for about two months and then been able to tell the world:
  1. Osama Bin Laden was killed in a spectacular military raid, and…
  2. We have killed the five most likely terrorists in the line of succession to take over al-Qaida, and…
  3. 80% of al-Qaida financial assets have been seized, and…
  4. We have disrupted four major future terrorist attacks against ourselves and our allies in our war against terrorism, and etc., etc.!

The second thing we should be concerned about with this massive outflowing of information about the raid is the dramatic increase in al-Qaida’s operational capabilities to avoid our future intelligence gathering capabilities.Every day more of the details are put out about how we got the information that led to the death of Osama Bin Laden. We are also telling them exactly where, when and how they screwed up or had a lapse in security that let us break the case.

All this information is a wonderful guide to them on what they need to change to eliminate detection. If we think it was hard to track down their leaders before, wait until we try it the next time. Let us look at what happened the last time a president wanted to raise his poll numbers a bit. One of the reasons we had such a hard time finding Osama Bin Laden this time and a major reason we got surprised on 9-11 was because President Clinton disclosed that we were monitoring Osama Bin Laden’s satellite cell phone about the time of the Monica saga. After that small disclosure Osama Bin Laden stopped using his satellite phone and all electronic devices. He then went to the courier system and allowed few if anyone except a trusted courier even to know his location. After that almost all information from him completely dried up. If this disclosure of highly classified information had not happened we might have known about 9-11 in advance, the twin towers might be standing and 3,000 lives might not have been lost, not to even mention the cost of the wars that followed. As they said during WWII, Loose lips sink ships!

The Bottom Line:
Because Obama couldn’t wait for a very short time to see his poll numbers go up and brag about a military success at a later time:
  1. Al Qaida gained valuable information that will provide them time to modify compromised operational plans and reposition leaders and assets.
  2. The US was prevented from scoring as decisive and extremely damaging a blow against al-Qaida as would otherwise been possible without this security breach.
  3. Al-Qaida was provided valuable information about their operational security failures.
  4. All of the above will most assuredly enhance terrorist operations against us in the future at the cost of many American lives.
It is sickening to me to see Obama basking in success when he apparently has been an impediment rather than an asset to the country. He has ripped the possibility of one of the most successful military operations we have had in recent times from the jaws of victory and greatly diminished the brilliant efforts of our outstanding military force!

Posted at 08:52 AM in Defense | | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

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