What you can do for your country

Climate Change Data: Could Gore, Reid, Obama, or Pelosi Pass College Physics?

I generally believe using energy more efficiently is a good thing.  Economic, energy, health care or any other forms of efficiency are a good practice in business and society.  I have really never had an opinion per se on global warming, because it is all about talk and no action.  I think it makes sense for us to have alternative sources of energy so that international crisis does not threaten our nation, but trade with the middle east helps maintain influence.  Everything is a balance.

So, you can say I sort of abstain from the climate debate.  I have an engineering background and have worked on projects requiring massive analysis to get the right answer, an answer that often effects human life.  So, within my trade I consider intellectual integrity a pretty important safety net.  Also, as an engineer, I have a hard time believing that if CO2 is a harm to the environment that humans are the critical component to driving instability in the ecosystem.  One eruption of a volcano emits more CO2 that the mankind has emitted over years.  A slight shift in ocean temperature can emit large volumes of CO2.  There are many components that contribute to the CO2 picture.  None are "Settled"

I am troubled by the climate gate story.  I hear politicians and commentators, none of whom could pass 1st year college physics, talk about how this was a "rouge group of scientist", "Their data was not used by others", or "One set of bad apples".  Frankly, in reading the emails of these scientists, I am not sure what to call them.  If the objective is to save the plane, a scientist or engineer seeks to maintain the integrity of their work so that it is not politicized.  Politicized airplanes don't fly!

There is so much data now flying around, its hard to discern the integrity of any of it, and that is a by product of these so called climate scientists.  I am reluctant to show more data, but did see some charts that troubled me (if they are accurate).  In this first chart, showing temperature for the last 500 years, the famed "Hockey Stick" shows up in the late 1800s, circled in red.  This jump in temperature of 0.4 degrees Celsius is the harbinger of our demise that is the predicate of climate concern.

Left alone, this jump does seem odd.  As an engineer you want to learn more.  For example, is the data accurate, is it relevant, and does it matter.  When you think about accuracy, you wonder if our method of measuring temperature changed in the last 500 years?  By relevant, you wonder if temperature rise is the result of, or the cause of, climate change?  By does it matter, you wonder if this has happened before?  So lets go further back in time say 1000 years back from today.

On a scale from 800 AD to today, you can see that the "Hockey Stick" has been seen before.  It seems round the period of 800-1100 AD, the world was a warmer place.  So the recent hockey stick could be the start of that same kind of cycle, or it could be the beginning of the end. So lets go back further. 

When you go back to 3000 years BC, you see that the recent hockey stick in the late 1990s (in red) is one of many.  It is hard to discern if the recent uptick is a precursor to a small peak like occurred in 1100 AD or a large peak that occurred in 1100 BC.  It would seem however that the earth has gone through a temperature increase before the existence of coal plants and cars.  It even was warmer before Christ was born (fire, brimstone, and all that).  So, following the trend it draws your attention to what happened even longer ago.

Looking back to 8000BC, the recent hockey stick (Red circle on right side of chart) is dwarfed by periods of higher temperatures.  Going even further back, lets say 40,000 years BC you start to see a pattern emerge.

I am not going to waste my time drawing a meaningless red circle in the 1900 period.  What 40,000 years of data seems to show us is we have gone through periods of increases and decreases in planet temperature.

All this data comes from ice core samples that by some method offer a good indication of temperature over 40,000 years.  I guess I won't debate that as a source (though someone maybe should).  Looking at the long history of temperature, I would be surprised if we did not see global warming in our future.  It appears in the last 8000 years we have had a bit of a lucky break in that it has been warm for a while.  Interestingly, it could be because of that extended time frame that humankind has flourished.

Looking back helps temper our thinking.  It does not say what will happen tomorrow.  The past does not say these patterns will continue.  But saying that the science is settled is really quite insane.  F=MA is settled science.  The principle of F=MA can be repeated time and again with the same result.  There is no real test for humankind's impact on the climate.  So, the science is not settled.  Also, science is not a majority vote.  Most true inspirations in science were breakthroughs by one or two people in opposition of all their peers.  Einstein went against the views of others.  Scientists thought it was impossible to fly faster than sound.  Doctors, until just recently, thought Ulcers were caused by stress.  One Australian doctor toiled for years proving ulcers are a result of bacteria.

I do not know what motivates politicians and Al Gore.  Based on the data over 40,0000 years, they really don't have a good argument for human induced climate change.  I am not sure Gore, Reid, Obama, or Pelosi could pass a college physics course if they tried.  It is unclear to me they have an engineers mind or sense of analytical integrity.  they have to listen to other 100% because they can't do these calculations alone.  It is unclear to me that the folks in the climate gate memos are still using scientific method.  We could be going into some form of climate change that is human induced, but of the causes for climate change I would list humans as #100 on a long list of possible causes.

Instead, we should probably think about what we need to do if temperatures rise (or fall).  If it gets warmer or cooler than the past, we will probably need more energy and more food.  Conflict is likely to rise as a result of human migration adapting to a changing climate.  This all suggests more forms of energy, strong defense, more productive crops, and more innovation. 

2.2B on vaccine that will arrive too late, an imperfect plan? Smart power?

We have known about the H1N1 (Swine Flu), risk for many months now.  We knew that last spring's outbreak would turn into a more virulent strain by this fall.  That is all basic science.  Concerned for our citizens, the government recognized the need to produce substantial volumes of vaccine.  We have spent more than $2.2B for H1N1 Swine flu.  To date, only a minor amount of this vaccine has been delivered, but concern seems muted.  Despite new vaccine manufacturing technologies, we persist in using outdated methods and to spend huge sums of money in a wasteful manner.  Why? 

Here is a bit of background....

• Clinton (HRC) pushed the Vaccines for Children policy in 1993, which caused most manufactures to exit the industry
• In early part of Bush administration R&D in vaccine research was dramatically increased
• 2004 season: a combination of fewer manufactures and accusations of Bush incompetence resulted in ~40M dose short fall vs. plan of 100M doses for season flu
• Fear of Bird flu and other emerging pandemics led Democrats to accuse Bush administration of multiple failings.  Budgets for pandemic research and preparedness were increased substantially (more than $4B over 2005-2007 time frame) 
• Additional $1.5B was authorized in Spring of 2009 to produce H1N1 vaccine.  Total spend for H1N1 Vaccine of approximately $2.2B 
• By Fall of 2009, only 11.3M doses of a planned 250M doses have been delivered.  HHS claims there have been minor "glitches", DHS claims all is per plan
• Critical study shows vaccine will arrive too late for impact on H1N1
• 1,000  3,900 people have died so far in US (if you recall 1,494 died in Katrina apparently because of Bush's failing and global warming, which is also Bush's fault)
• Main Stream Media is mum on whole issue, Fox (non) News is not

My frustration comes from a few issues.  The historic process of making vaccines in egg shells is arcane and subject to numerous production risks that can result in last minute issues like contamination (cause of 40M dose shortage in 2004).  Liability clauses discourage drug manufactures from manufacturing vaccine, and Government is unwilling to wave terms.  Companies like Novavax (www.novavax.com) have had a novel technique, using virus like particles to make large volumes of vaccine, for many years, but government continues to buy from companies using old egg technique.  Per the time line below, Democrats have put huge amount of effort and money into realigning national efforts for pandemic response (and ridicule of the past administration for its failures) but seem to deliver worse results.

So, we are spending dramatically more money.  We have all the best minds focused on the subject.  Every resources of government is focused on success.  Obama has every resource he has requested.  We have been spending the last 4 years realigning efforts for pandemic. And, we are 210M doses short of plan for H1N1.  When the vaccine does become available, the pandemic will likely have run its course killing more people than died in the (supposed) last government lead disaster (Katrina).  Is this smart government?

Frankly, had government instead focused less than a $1 billion on new production techniques like those of innovative companies (Novavax, etc), we would have all the vaccine we would ever need.  Where are the hearings?  Where is the outrage?  Where is our money?  Is this how stimulus is being spent?  Does anyone in Congress actually think about a problem, look at the fundamentals, and perhaps question why we are still building vaccine the way we did in 1940?  Great innovation guys, where are our coffins?  

Timeline

1993

HRC (Clinton) implements Vaccines for Children program gutting profitability in the vaccine industry and imposing government control over a large share of revenue.  Major players exit industry in response.

2001-2004

Bush administration raises vaccine funding from $39 million in 2001 to a proposed budget of $283 million in fiscal year 2005. The National Institutes of Health has increased its spending on new ways to make vaccines to $60 million from $20 million. (NY Times) 

2004

January:Senators Bayh, Landrieu and Durbin introduced the Flu Protection Act (S. 2038) to strengthen the nation’s vaccine supply and establish a plan to prevent, prepare for, and respond to an influenza pandemic.

October:Vaccine production for 2004 season falls short ~40M of a planned 100M doses.  Bush was accused of incompetence and insensitivity.  The 40M  dose shortage was associated with a contaminant found late in the manufacturing process.  Senator Kennedy requested from Acting Commissioner of Food and Drugs Lester Crawford a complete record of all contact between FDA and Chiron Corporation, a major supplier of influenza vaccine to the United States.  While Chiron had announced problems with vaccine production back in August 2004, FDA claimed to be surprised by the early October announcement that Chiron’s Liverpool facility had lost its license to produce vaccine.  Kennedy expressed the great importance of a stable, effective vaccine supply to protect Americans from seasonal flu, which is also necessary to respond to a pandemic influenza outbreak.

2005

March 2005: Senator Obama successfully amended the Foreign Relations Committee Authorization Act to authorize $25 million for international efforts to combat avian influenza and called on then-President Bush to create an inter-agency task force composed of representatives of the Department of State, Department of Health and Human Services, Department of Agriculture, and other appropriate agencies.   

April: then-Senator Obama introduced the AVIAN Act (S. 969), the first comprehensive bill addressing the threat of pandemic influenza.

May: Senate Democrats secured $58 million in the Supplemental Appropriations bill (P.L. 109-13)to purchase more antiviral medication for the Strategic National Stockpile to better prepare for pandemic influenza.  This law also directed $25 million to USAID for programs to control the global spread of the avian flu. 

August:1,464 people die in Hurricane Katrina

September:Senator Reid took to the Senate floor urging immediate action to prepare for the threat of pandemic influenza and expressing the importance of immediately committing the resources necessary to protect Americans.  Senator Reid stated that the nation could not wait any longer for the Bush Administration to finalize its pandemic influenza preparedness plan and announced that Democrats would offer a pandemic preparedness amendment to the Department of Defense Appropriations bill.  Senate Democrats, led by Senators Harkin, Obama, Reid, Durbin, Bayh, and Dodd, successfully amended the Fiscal Year (FY) 2006 defense and emergency supplemental appropriations bill (P.L. 109-141) $3.9 billion to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to fund pandemic flu preparedness.

October:the Senate approved an amendment by Senator Harkin to the Labor-HHS-Education appropriations bill adding $8 billion to prepare for and protect against the threat of an avian flu pandemic. 

November: President Bush released a final pandemic influenza preparedness plan and requested $7.1 billion in emergency supplemental funding for pandemic flu preparedness, almost a billion dollars less than what Senate Democrats had successfully included in the Labor-HHS-Education appropriations bill.

December: the Republican-controlled Congress approved only $3.8 billion to prepare for a flu pandemic in the emergency supplemental appropriations bill (P.L. 109-148) – less than half of the $8 billion the Senate had passed through the Harkin amendment.

2006

February:Democrats fought to include $2.3 billion in additional funding for HHS in a second emergency supplemental appropriations bill passed during FY2006 (P.L. 109-234).  32 Senate Democrats sent a letter to President Bush, calling on him to make pandemic flu preparedness a priority in his Fiscal Year 2007 budget.  President Bush released his budget proposal for Fiscal Year 2007, including a $2.3 billion allowance for pandemic influenza activities.  The President did not include the $2.3 billion in pandemic flu funding in his emergency supplemental budget request to Congress.  Fortunately, during the Appropriations Committee markup of the supplemental in early April, an amendment offered by Senator Harkin to add $2.3 billion in pandemic flu funding was approved by voice vote, and the funding was included in the version of the supplemental signed into law on June 15, 2006 (P.L. 109-234).

May: Senator Kennedy released a report entitled, “Too Little Too Late: The Bush Administration’s Record of Failure in Preparing for Pandemic Flu.”  The report detailed failures of the Bush Administration and Republican-led Congress to adequately prepare the United States for pandemic influenza, due to limited appropriations, lack of coordination among government entities, and an overly narrow focus on only a few of the actions necessary to prepare the nation for pandemic influenza.

2007

May: President Bush vetoed legislation passed by the Democratic-led Congress which would have provided $625 million for pandemic flu preparedness at HHS (H.R. 1591). 

November: President Bush vetoed the FY2008 Labor, Health and Human Services, and Education Appropriations bill (H.R. 3043).  This legislation would have provided $870 million to prepare for and respond to an influenza pandemic, including funds for vaccines, antiviral medications, medical supplies, diagnostics and surveillance tools.  In order to pass a bill the President would sign, pandemic flu funding was reduced to $302 million in P.L. 110-161.

December: Senator Clinton introduced the Influenza Vaccine Security Act (S. 2456) to improve and secure our nation’s supply of influenza vaccine, improve vaccine distribution, and improve stockpiling of supplies to prevent and treat pandemic influenza.

2009

January: the Senate Appropriations Committee approved the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, which included $870 million for pandemic flu preparedness activities.  Unfortunately, this funding was removed as a condition for final passage and, therefore, was not included in the final version of the legislation signed into law by President Obama (P.L. 111-5).

Spring:Major outbreak of H1N1 Swine flu suggests pandemic will emerge, stronger in Fall 2009

March: the Senate approved the Fiscal Year 2009 Omnibus Appropriations bill.  Led by Democrats, this legislation (P.L. 111-8) included $818 million for pandemic flu preparedness.

April:President Obama requested $1.5 billion in emergency appropriations to respond to the H1N1 influenza virus, and Senate Democrats, including Majority Leader Reid and Labor-HHS-Education Appropriations Subcommittee Chairman Harkin, indicated the Senate was poised to comply with the President’s request.

May: President Obama’s Fiscal Year 2010 Budget Request included $584 million for pandemic flu preparedness.  This funding is in addition to the $1.5 billion requested in April as part of the emergency supplemental appropriations. The Senate Appropriations Committee approved the Fiscal Year 2009 Supplemental Appropriationsbill, including $1.5 billion to prepare for and respond to a global disease pandemic, including the H1N1 influenza virus.

Orders for Bulk Supply of H1N1 Influenza Vaccine Antigen and Adjuvant: May 22, 2009

Manufacturer	Bulk Vaccine Antigen	Oil-In-Water Bulk Adjuvant
Novartis	$150 million	$139 million
GlaxoSmithKline	$ 38 million	$144 million
Sanofi Pasteur	$191 million
CSL Biotherapies	$180 million
MedImmune	$ 90 million
Total	$649 million	$283 million

Orders for Bulk Supply of H1N1 Influenza Vaccine Antigen and Adjuvant: July 9, 2009

Manufacturer	Bulk Vaccine Antigen	Bulk Virus Concentrate/FFF	Oil-In-Water Bulk Adjuvant
Sanofi Pasteur	$61,425,000	0	0
GSK	$0	0	$71,400,000
Novartis	$346,334,450	0	$343,810,470
CSL	$0	0	0
MedImmune	$0	$61,008,000	0
Total	$407,759,450	$61,008,000	$415,210,470

September: With vaccine shortage becoming apparent, Government releases study showing less vaccine is required than orginally expected.  This changes dosing requirment from 2 shots to 1 shot.  Essentially doubling the expected capacity and eliminating major forecasted shortfall.

HHS orders an additional 56 million doses of vaccine: September 21, 2009

Manufacturer	Total Cost
MedImmune	$295,660,000
Sanofi Pasteur	$143,483,025
Total	$438,143,025

October: CDC Defends Reliance on "Antiquated" H1N1 Vaccine Production Despite Shortage.  Government's original modified order of 251M doses, expected to receive 40M by this point actually has yield only 11.3 M doses.  1000 have died and 20K hospitalized so far due to H1N1 (and presumably lack of vaccine).

Siebeus "Blamed the vaccine shortage on lower than predicted yields from vaccine manufacturers and on some manufacturing 'glitches' that have occurred since May. ....the yields are now more in line with original predictions and that any glitches have been corrected." 

Napolitano said "federal officials had assumed there would be a lag in vaccine availability and a spike in the flu, so officials are not surprised that H1N1 has spiked at a time when there is not enough vaccine available."

Study shows vaccine will be too late to have impact on H1N1

Lieberman holds hearing on Vaccine shortage, but only Fox News reports  MSM ignores (WH Embargo?)

> 1000 people in US have died due to H1N1